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Following delayed signals: 40 seconds late is a different market

Data: official Kalshi settlements

Money-losing strategies

Copying signals that arrive via a group, a screenshot, or an indicator that estimates these markets from the outside. We built one of those indicators and measured it against the real market: the alert arrived between 35 and 40 seconds after the opportunity formed. In 15-minute windows, that is not a detail: it is trading a different price.

Where the delay comes from

Each layer between the market and your finger adds seconds: the price is detected, a program interprets it, the alert travels, your phone shows it, you read it, open the trade, confirm. In our measurement, an indicator that estimated the prices of these markets from public charts was already 5–7 seconds behind within its own chart, and with its confirmation time the useful signal arrived 35–40 seconds late compared to the real market.

Why it hurts so much here

What to do instead

The full series

This page is part of the Money-Losing Strategies series, where we cover the traps we have tested and measured in our own systems. And if you want to see how a system that avoids these traps performs, the full history — failures included — is in the public statistics.

Primary sources

The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.