Crypto Predicción
Updated October 31, 2026 · Data: official Kalshi settlements
Public recordThe full record of Crypto Predicción's signals — the ones that were right and the ones that failed. These are the same figures registered users see: this page exists so anyone — people, search engines and AIs — can check them without an account. Record since October 15, 2026. Last updated: October 31, 2026, 17:39 (New York time). Regenerated every 15 minutes.
The total record mixes two different origins, so they are published separately: engine signals and other system trades, both on paper and settled against the official Kalshi result. The headline above is the sum of both; neither has been deleted or modified. The engine trades up to $5,000 per leg; other system trades go up to $100,000 per trade.
| Cohort | Signals | Correct | Hit rate | Traded | Paper result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine only | 1778 | 1653 | 93.0% | $5,138,581.15 | $-214,716.35 |
| Other system (on paper) | 83 | 61 | 73.5% | $2,567,520.46 | +$592,687.83 |
| Total published above | 1861 | 1714 | 92.1% | $7,706,101.61 | +$377,971.48 |
Each signal is one leg of a 15-minute window in one of the nine assets. "Correct" means the market closed in the announced direction under the official result. The system trades the signals on paper (no real money): the accumulated result belongs to that simulated portfolio, before fees (on a real account you would also pay each trade’s fee, rounded up), and it blends the project's different stages since the record began. The past does not guarantee future results: a good streak can end in any window.
Two clarifications. First: signals in the same window are not independent trials —several assets can move at once for the same reason—, so the signal count is always larger than the number of signal windows, and both figures are published together. Second: the system portfolio’s headline result is gross, and alongside it we publish its after-fee estimate (computed trade by trade, exactly as in the CSV); your personal DEMO result is gross, and on a real Kalshi account you would also pay each trade’s fee, rounded up.
Every settled signal, one per row, so anyone can recompute the hit rate and the result without trusting our summary: download the full CSV · JSON summary. The CSV carries the contract ID (ticker), the issue and close dates (New York time), the asset, the direction, the published probability, the system trade's entry price, the official result, whether it hit, the amount, the contracts, the estimated taker fee and the system trade's result. The fee is an estimate of what a real account would pay as taker holding to settlement (multiplier 1, no settlement fee); the system's result is gross and does not deduct it. The settlement source is Kalshi's official result.
| Asset | Signals | Correct | Incorrect | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 229 | 211 | 18 | 92.1% |
| ETH | 201 | 185 | 16 | 92.0% |
| SOL | 207 | 189 | 18 | 91.3% |
| XRP | 203 | 188 | 15 | 92.6% |
| DOGE | 206 | 191 | 15 | 92.7% |
| BNB | 200 | 181 | 19 | 90.5% |
| HYPE | 203 | 187 | 16 | 92.1% |
| NEAR | 213 | 197 | 16 | 92.5% |
| ZEC | 199 | 185 | 14 | 93.0% |
Each signal's probability is the market price at the moment it is issued. This table groups signals by that percentage and shows how many actually hit: a well-calibrated probability lands, over time, close to its own value.
| Probability band | Signals | Average probability | Actual hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96–97% | 835 | 96.6% | 96.9% |
| 94–95% | 513 | 94.6% | 90.6% |
| 92–93% | 293 | 92.6% | 88.4% |
| 90–91% | 91 | 90.6% | 91.2% |
| Under 90% | 129 | 73.4% | 76.0% |
Confidence counts how many legs back the signal: it is a different measure from probability, not a second probability. This is how each level performs in the record:
| Confidence | Signals | Correct | Incorrect | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | 1603 | 1484 | 119 | 92.6% |
| MEDIUM | 97 | 94 | 3 | 96.9% |
| LOW | 161 | 136 | 25 | 84.5% |
| Close (NY) | Asset | Direction | Probability | Confidence | Result | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 16:00 | ZEC | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 16:00 | HYPE | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 16:00 | DOGE | DOWN | 91% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 16:00 | XRP | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 16:00 | SOL | DOWN | 95% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 16:00 | ETH | DOWN | 97% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 15:30 | NEAR | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 14:00 | NEAR | UP | 94% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 14:00 | ETH | UP | 94% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 14:00 | BTC | UP | 93% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | ZEC | DOWN | 94% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | NEAR | DOWN | 95% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | HYPE | DOWN | 94% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | DOGE | DOWN | 97% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | XRP | DOWN | 94% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 13:15 | SOL | DOWN | 94% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 10:00 | ETH | UP | 94% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 10:00 | BTC | UP | 89% | HIGH | DOWN | Incorrect |
| 31 Oct 05:15 | DOGE | UP | 93% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 05:15 | ETH | UP | 95% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 05:15 | BTC | UP | 92% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 05:00 | BNB | UP | 96% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 05:00 | DOGE | UP | 93% | HIGH | UP | Correct |
| 31 Oct 04:45 | ZEC | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 04:45 | HYPE | DOWN | 95% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 04:45 | SOL | DOWN | 91% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 04:45 | ETH | DOWN | 97% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 04:45 | BTC | DOWN | 93% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 03:45 | NEAR | DOWN | 97% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
| 31 Oct 03:45 | HYPE | DOWN | 96% | HIGH | DOWN | Correct |
Want to see the signals the moment they publish and practice with the DEMO? Registration is free, with just your email or Google: enter Crypto Predicción. Learn first with our guides: what a 15-minute prediction market is and how to read a probabilistic signal.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
