What is a 15-minute prediction market

Data: official Kalshi settlements

A prediction market is a market where you don't buy the asset itself, but an answer to a question with two possible outcomes. In 15-minute cryptocurrency markets the question is very concrete: will this asset close above its target level when the 15-minute window ends?

The window and the target

Time is divided into consecutive 15-minute windows (for example, from 10:00 to 10:15). When each window opens, a target level is set: a reference calculated from the asset's average price in the moments before the open. If at the close the reference price is at or above the target, the UP side wins; if it is below, the DOWN side wins. It doesn't matter how much the price moves: only which side of the target it ends on.

Price is a probability

Each side of the market has a price between 1% and 99%. That price is read as the probability the market itself assigns to that outcome. If the UP side is priced at 80%, the market is saying "we believe there is an 80% probability it closes higher." Participants buy contracts at that price: if they're right, each contract pays $1; if not, the contract is worth $0. That is why a contract at 80% that hits earns 20 cents per contract, and one that misses loses the full 80: losses and gains are not symmetric, and the higher the probability, the more you risk for every cent of potential gain.

How the result is decided

Settlement is not decided by anyone's opinion: when the window closes, the official result is calculated from the market's reference source (aggregated price indexes for the asset) and is recorded publicly and permanently. At Crypto Predicción we publish the signals and settle our track record against that same official result, including the signals that went wrong: you can see it in the public statistics.

What our engine watches

We follow nine assets —BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, NEAR and ZEC— because the crypto market frequently moves as a block. Our engine watches them in real time and, when it detects the conditions it looks for, publishes a signal for that window. Exactly which conditions those are is the private part of the project: what is public is the signal and its track record. How to interpret that signal is explained in the guide how to read a probabilistic signal.

The risks, with no fine print

In 15 minutes the price can turn completely around in seconds. A 90% probability still loses one time in ten by definition, and when it loses, it loses almost everything staked on that side. These markets are high risk and are not suitable for everyone: never take part with money you cannot afford to lose, and practice first in environments with no real money, like this platform's DEMO.