How to read a probabilistic signal

Data: official Kalshi settlements

A Crypto Predicción signal says three things: which asset (or which group of assets), which direction (UP or DOWN relative to the window's target) and with what probability. Reading it well means understanding that the number matters more than the enthusiasm.

The percentage is the heart of the signal

The probability is expressed as a percentage because it is the market's own price (if you don't know how that price is formed, read first what a 15-minute prediction market is). An 88% does not mean "this is a sure thing": it means that, if the market is well calibrated, out of every 100 windows like that one, about 12 will end the other way. And in these markets losing costs far more than winning pays: at 88%, a hit earns little per contract and a miss loses almost everything. The right question in front of any signal is not "will it hit?", but "does the price I'm paying compensate for the times this fails?".

The confidence levels: LOW, MEDIUM and HIGH

Confidence is a different measure from probability: it counts how many legs back the signal at the moment it is issued (few, LOW; several, HIGH). That is why a signal can show 96% and still be LOW: the percentage is the market price; the confidence is the backing. In our record the three levels hit at similar rates, so do not read it as a second probability or as extra assurance. No level removes the risk: the HIGH level loses too, and when it does, it hurts more per contract.

What to check in the track record before believing a number

• The sample size. A 95% hit rate over 20 signals says far less than a 92% over 500. Always demand the number of signals behind the percentage.
• The losses, visible. A serious track record shows the wrong signals with the same clarity as the right ones. If you only see wins, it isn't transparency: it's advertising.
• Coverage. What percentage of windows produce a signal. A system that only speaks when its conditions are fully met says little, but what it says is more comparable within itself.
• The economic result, not just the hit rate. In favorite-priced markets you can hit a lot and still lose money, because each failure costs several times what each hit earns. That is why we also publish the system's paper result in the public statistics.

The sensible practice: DEMO first

Crypto Predicción's DEMO reproduces real prices and settles with the official results, but with no money: contracts are calculated just like in a real market (amount ÷ price; a hit pays contracts × $1). It is the place to make mistakes for free, understand the asymmetry between winning and losing at high prices, and check with your own hands which part of the signals convinces you and which doesn't.