Crypto Predicción
Data: official Kalshi settlements
The basics for understanding this kind of market and our signals, explained plainly and with no promises. Start with the first one if you're coming in from zero.
The window, the target level, price as probability, and how the official result is decided.
What the percentage means, what the LOW, MEDIUM and HIGH levels are, and what to check in a track record before believing it.
Window, target, signal, coverage, settlement, PnL and the rest of the terms, all on one page.
The two homes of these markets, with no affiliation and no hype: what is Kalshi? —the regulated US exchange— and what is Polymarket? —the global giant—, with their comparison across the 15-minute markets: who settles, what they charge, and who can get in.
What a bot does in these markets, the three kinds you'll run into, and the experiment with the 90 bots that found no edge.
The target line and the 60-second average that decides settlement; why a 1-second chart from an exchange is misleading.
Calibration, fees and real execution: the three tests every BTC 15m strategy must pass before it deserves a dollar.
Reddit and forums on Kalshi's BTC 15m: the "rigged" claim fact-checked, bots vs. humans, and the streak screenshots.
The most searched questions, answered directly: what a prediction market is, price as probability, maximum loss, the tie, fees, legality, and whether you can actually make money.
0.07 × price × (1 − price): the table by price, the round trip, maker vs. taker, and the hidden toll of 15-minute markets.
The honest answer, with the public price-calibration data and the three walls: fees, speed, and windows that owe each other nothing.
The traps we have tested and measured on our own systems, told plainly in the series Strategies that lose money: the martingale, chasing losses, trading every window, exiting early "to lock it in", betting your whole bankroll and following signals with a delay.
And whenever you want to check whether what we say holds up: the public statistics show the complete track record, failures included.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
