Crypto Predicción
Data: official Kalshi settlements
PlatformsDirect answer: Polymarket is the largest prediction-market platform on the planet: millions of people trade there on whether something will happen or not —above all politics and sports— paying $1 per correct position. In worldwide search interest it beats Kalshi by roughly two to one, and most of that interest is electoral; its 15-minute cryptocurrency desk is the other great reference for the format alongside Kalshi.
If you came for the 15-minute markets, this is what we do: live signals for all nine assets, practice with no money and the full record.
Crypto Predicción is not Kalshi or Polymarket and is not affiliated with them: it is an independent project that watches their 15-minute markets and publishes educational signals with an auditable record.
Just like any event exchange: questions with YES/NO sides, prices from 1¢ to 99¢ that read as probability, an order book between users, early sale possible and settlement by the official source written in each market. Its global platform runs on blockchain with USDC and resolution supported by oracles; in 2025 it added a regulated arm to operate legally in the United States.
Polymarket's "Up or Down" —will Bitcoin close above the window's opening price?— run 24/7 on its global platform, with Chainlink's source deciding the result, and arrived in its US app starting with Bitcoin and later adding ETH, SOL and XRP. In altcoins, its global book usually has more activity than Kalshi's; in Bitcoin, Kalshi's is the deepest. Same format, different settlement sources: the difference that costs the most to ignore.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Event-contract exchange regulated in the US (CFTC) | The largest global prediction-market platform; global version on-chain (USDC) and a regulated US arm |
| Crypto in 15 minutes | Broad series: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, NEAR, ZEC and more | Up/Down for BTC and, depending on the version, ETH, SOL and XRP; the global altcoin book is more active |
| Who settles it | CF Benchmarks indices: 60-second averages at the open and at the close; a tie pays UP | On the global platform, Chainlink's price feed |
| Fee (taker) | 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract | 0.0695 × price × (1 − price) in the US version |
| Access | US residents, with identity verification and 18+ | Global depending on the country (the offer varies and there are restrictions by jurisdiction); US via its regulated arm |
More context: legality and differences from betting and the fees guide with the table by price.
Crypto Predicción is not part of Polymarket and has no commercial affiliation with it. We watch the sector's 15-minute markets —with Kalshi's as the main settlement reference— and publish educational signals with a full public record, plus a DEMO with no money. If you trade on Polymarket, you do it on its platform, with your account and under its rules and those of your country.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction-market platform: a market where YES or NO positions are bought and sold on events —elections, sports, economics and cryptocurrencies— and the price of each position is the estimated probability, paying $1 if it is right.
In origin and form: Kalshi was born as a regulated US exchange in dollars; Polymarket grew as a global platform on blockchain with USDC and later added a regulated arm for the US. In 15-minute markets they also differ in the source that settles: CF Benchmarks on Kalshi, Chainlink's feed on Polymarket's global platform.
In its US version, the taker fee is 0.0695 × price × (1 − price) per contract: ≈1.74¢ at 50¢ and ≈0.63¢ at 90¢, practically a twin of Kalshi's. The global platform introduced fees in these short markets in 2026; always check the current fee on the market page.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
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