Frequently asked questions

What is most searched for on Google and most asked of AIs about 15-minute prediction markets, answered without beating around the bush. To go deeper, each answer links to its complete guide.

What is a prediction market?

It is a platform where YES or NO contracts are bought and sold on the outcome of a future event. Each contract costs between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price is the probability the market assigns to the outcome: if the event happens, the contract pays $1; if it does not happen, it is worth $0.

How does a 15-minute cryptocurrency market work?

Every 15 minutes, a window opens for each asset (for example, Bitcoin) with a simple question: will the price close above the target level set at the open? You buy the side you think is right at the current price and, at the close, the official result decides which side receives $1 per contract.

What does it mean for a contract to cost 90¢?

It means the market estimates the probability of that outcome at around 90%. If you buy at 90¢ and you are right, you receive $1 per contract (you earn 10¢ before fees); if you are wrong, you lose the 90¢. That is why these prices are called “favorite” prices: you earn little per hit and risk a lot per miss.

What is the maximum loss on a trade?

Exactly what you paid for the contracts. There is no leverage or margin: a trade cannot make you lose more than you put into it. The real risk is in chaining many trades without control, not in a single one.

What happens if the price ends exactly on the target?

In these up/down series, a tie pays the YES side (UP): the written rule is that the close must be “at least” the target level. It is a small detail worth knowing before you trade, because in very close calls it decides who gets paid.

Who decides the official result of a window?

The source designated in each market's rules, not the price of a single exchange. In the 15-minute cryptocurrency series, reference indexes that average several markets are used (the CF Benchmarks family), calculated over the last minute: that is why an asset can “look” like it is rising on your exchange and still officially close DOWN.

How much does it cost to trade? What fees are there?

In the reference series, a fee is paid per contract when you execute, in the form multiplier × 0.07 × price × (1 − price) —the multiplier is 1 in these series—: it costs more near 50¢ (about 1.75¢ per contract) and less at the extremes (about 0.63¢ at 90¢). If you hold to settlement you pay it only once (there is no settlement fee); if you exit early, you pay a second fee computed at the exit price, and on top of that you cross the price spread. We go through it with the full table in the fees guide.

Is it legal to trade on prediction markets?

It depends on the country and the platform. In the United States there are event contract exchanges regulated at the federal level by the CFTC; in other countries the status varies, is under debate, or the offering is restricted. Always check the situation in your jurisdiction and the platform's terms. This website does not execute trades: it publishes educational signals and a DEMO with no real money.

Is it the same as betting?

It is similar in the essential sense — you risk money on an uncertain outcome — and it differs in structure: you trade against other users, at prices set by supply and demand (not against a house with its own odds), and you can sell your position before the close. How the law classifies it depends on each jurisdiction; as far as your wallet is concerned, treat it with the same prudence as a bet.

Can you make money in these markets?

You can, but most participants lose. The price already incorporates the probability that the market as a whole estimates, so winning requires being right on a sustained basis more than the price and the fees already discount. Anyone who guarantees you profits in these markets is lying to you: there are none. We analyze it with data on the “Can you make money?” page.

How much money do I need to start?

Technically very little, because contracts cost cents. The sensible approach is a different order of magnitude: practice first without money (here you have a complete DEMO), and if one day you trade with real money, make it an amount you can afford to lose, in small fractions of your bankroll per trade.

Can I exit before the window closes?

Yes: you can sell your position at the bid price available at that moment. But be careful about turning it into a habit: we measured on real entries that systematically exiting “to lock it in” tended to perform worse than holding until settlement, between the spread and the second fee. The “Closing early” guide has the numbers.

How does the market platform make money?

Mainly from the fees per trade (and, depending on the platform, other services). It earns the same whether you trade well or badly, and it earns more the more you trade: that is why volume suits it, and discipline is up to you.

Do prediction signals work? How do I choose reliable ones?

A signal is a probability with a track record, not a guarantee: it works if its full history supports it. To judge any signals service — this one included — demand four things: a complete public history (with the failures), settlement with the market's official result, zero promises of profits, and no payment to “unlock” signals. Crypto Predicción publishes its complete, auditable statistics at /en/estadisticas precisely so you can check it without taking our word for it.

Where do I keep learning?

In the guides: what a 15-minute market is, how to read a probabilistic signal, the complete glossary, and the series on strategies that lose money. And to see whether a system holds up to what it claims, the public statistics of this project, updated every 15 minutes.