Prediction market glossary

Data: official Kalshi settlements

The terms we use at Crypto Predicción and in the 15-minute window markets, explained without unnecessary jargon.

Window

The 15-minute period a market refers to. Each window has its open, its target level and its close with an official result.

Target level ("to beat")

The reference set when the window opens, calculated from the asset's average price in the moments before. If the reference price at the close is at or above it, UP wins; if it is below, DOWN wins.

UP / DOWN

The two sides of the market: UP wins if the close is at or above the target; DOWN wins otherwise. In international books they appear as YES/NO.

Probability (price)

Each side's price expressed as a percentage (1–99%). It is the probability the market itself assigns to that outcome. A contract bought at that price pays $1 if it hits and $0 if it misses.

Signal

The notice Crypto Predicción publishes when its engine detects that its private internal publishing criteria for a window are met. Those criteria are private: what is public is the signal, its probability and its result.

Confidence (LOW / MEDIUM / HIGH)

The label we group signals by, according to the strength of the market conditions behind them and their price zone. The higher the confidence, the higher the historical hit rate and the lower the margin per hit.

Coverage

The percentage of observed windows in which at least one signal was published. Low coverage means a selective system: it speaks rarely.

Settlement

The moment when, once the window has closed, the market's official result is applied and every signal and trade is marked correct/incorrect or won/lost.

Official result

The outcome determined by the market's reference source (aggregated price indexes for the asset). It is the only one that counts for settlement, including in our public track record.

DEMO

The platform's practice environment: the same real prices and the same official settlement, but with virtual balances in your browser. No real money is involved and no orders are executed.

Paper trade

A simulated trade under the market's rules (price, contracts, simulated fees) without moving money. That is how Crypto Predicción's system operates to build its auditable track record.

PnL (result)

"Profit and Loss": the sum of gains and losses across a set of trades. In the public statistics it is the system's accumulated paper result.

Prediction market

A market where contracts are traded on the outcome of a specific question. The guide explains it calmly: what a 15-minute prediction market is.