Crypto Predicción
Data: official Kalshi settlements
PlatformsDirect answer: Kalshi is a regulated US market where people trade contracts on whether something will happen or not —an election, an economic data release, or whether Bitcoin will close up in the next 15 minutes— paying $1 per correct contract. Alongside Polymarket, it is the name that dominates searches in this sector.
If you came for the 15-minute markets, this is what we do: live signals for all nine assets, practice with no money and the full record.
Crypto Predicción is not Kalshi or Polymarket and is not affiliated with them: it is an independent project that watches their 15-minute markets and publishes educational signals with an auditable record.
Each market is a question with two sides, YES and NO, quoted between 1¢ and 99¢ and always adding up to ≈$1 between the two: the price is the probability the user base as a whole assigns to the outcome. You trade against other users in an open order book (not against "the house" setting odds), you can sell your position before the close, and at settlement the official result written in each market's rules decides. The platform earns from trading fees, not from you losing.
Kalshi is the reference for 15-minute crypto windows: its series (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, NEAR, ZEC…) open 96 daily windows per asset, settle with CF Benchmarks indices averaged over 60 seconds and charge the parabolic fee of 0.07 × price × (1 − price), the highest right at 50/50 where these windows live. Its infrastructure even feeds the 15-minute contracts that other brands —such as Coinbase— offer their customers.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Event-contract exchange regulated in the US (CFTC) | The largest global prediction-market platform; global version on-chain (USDC) and a regulated US arm |
| Crypto in 15 minutes | Broad series: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, NEAR, ZEC and more | Up/Down for BTC and, depending on the version, ETH, SOL and XRP; the global altcoin book is more active |
| Who settles it | CF Benchmarks indices: 60-second averages at the open and at the close; a tie pays UP | On the global platform, Chainlink's price feed |
| Fee (taker) | 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract | 0.0695 × price × (1 − price) in the US version |
| Access | US residents, with identity verification and 18+ | Global depending on the country (the offer varies and there are restrictions by jurisdiction); US via its regulated arm |
The full cost comparison is in the fees guide and the legality one, in is it legal? is it betting?.
Crypto Predicción is not part of Kalshi and has no commercial affiliation with it. We are an independent project that watches its 15-minute cryptocurrency markets, publishes probabilistic signals with their full record in the public statistics and offers a DEMO to practice with no money. If you trade on Kalshi, you do it on its platform, with your account and under its rules.
Kalshi is a regulated US exchange where YES or NO contracts are bought and sold on future outcomes —sports, politics, economics and cryptocurrency prices— at prices from 1¢ to 99¢ that represent the estimated probability; the correct side pays $1 per contract.
In the United States it operates as a designated contract market supervised by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator; that is the basis of its federal legality, although some states dispute part of its offering. Outside the US it is not available to the general public: it is a platform for verified US residents.
A series (KXBTC15M) that opens a window every 15 minutes asking whether Bitcoin will close above the target level. The target and the close are calculated with the CF Benchmarks reference index averaging 60 seconds, and a tie pays the UP side. It is the market this platform watches and on which it publishes signals with a public record.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
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