Crypto Predicción
Data: official Kalshi settlements
People search for "Kalshi odds" expecting a sportsbook table. There isn't one, and that's the point: a Kalshi price is already the odds, expressed as a probability. A contract at 63¢ says the market believes the event has about a 63% chance, and if you're right it pays exactly $1.
That is what we do here: live probability signals for the 15-minute windows of nine crypto assets, a free DEMO to practice with no money, and the full public record behind them.
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| Price (YES) | Implied chance | Profit per contract if right | Feels like |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | ~10% | +90¢ | a long shot at 9-to-1 |
| 25¢ | ~25% | +75¢ | 3-to-1 against |
| 50¢ | ~50% | +50¢ | a coin flip, even money |
| 75¢ | ~75% | +25¢ | a strong favorite |
| 90¢ | ~90% | +10¢ | "almost certain" — and wrong 1 time in 10 |
| 97¢ | ~97% | +3¢ | picking up coins — until one loss eats 32 wins |
Before fees. The NO side mirrors this table: a YES at 90¢ is a NO at about 10¢.
A 90¢ contract is supposed to lose about one time in ten — that's what the price means. Trade ten of them and one full loss (−90¢) erases the profit of nine perfect wins (+10¢ each) before fees. This is not the market cheating you; it is the price doing its job. Over thousands of settled windows, contracts in each price band win within roughly a point of their stated probability — the market is calibrated, so there is no free money in "just buy the favorite". An edge only exists when your probability estimate is better than the price, which on 15-minute crypto means beating a number set by professionals and bots in real time. Our guide to reading a probabilistic signal shows how we present that honestly: a signal is a probability with a public record, never a promise.
A sportsbook bakes its margin into worse-than-true odds and can limit winners. An exchange like Kalshi doesn't take the other side of your trade — other traders do — and the "margin" shows up transparently as fees and the bid-ask spread. The practical consequence: the price you see is close to a true probability, so the game is not "find the dumb bookmaker" but "be more right than the crowd, after costs". Judge anyone who claims otherwise by their settled record — ours is public, losses included.
There are no bookmaker odds on Kalshi: the contract price in cents IS the implied probability. A YES at 63¢ means the market prices that outcome at about 63%, and a winning contract pays $1 — so your payout multiple is $1 divided by your entry price.
If it settles in your favor, $1 per contract: a profit of 10¢ per contract before fees, against 90¢ at risk. High prices win often and pay little; that asymmetry is the whole trade.
Across large samples, yes, closely: buckets of contracts priced near each 10¢ step settle as winners within about a point of their price over thousands of windows. Beating them requires being right more often than the price already assumes — after fees.
Educational content only — not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money: every contract that settles against you is worth $0. Adults 18+ only.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
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