Crypto Predicción
Data: official Kalshi settlements
For years, "Polymarket" in the US meant reading about a market you couldn't legally touch: the global, crypto-settled site restricts US users. Polymarket US is the regulated answer — built on QCX, a CFTC-regulated exchange Polymarket acquired — with its own app, dollar funding, identity checks and a market list that follows US rules. "Polymarket US" is now one of the most-searched related terms in the category, mostly by people trying to figure out which of the two products they're even looking at.
That is what we do here: live probability signals for the 15-minute windows of nine crypto assets, a free DEMO to practice with no money, and the full public record behind them.
The app is free: sign in with your email or with Google in under a minute. No deposits, no payments to unlock anything.
| Global | Polymarket US | |
|---|---|---|
| Access | Restricted in the US | Open to US residents (18+, KYC) |
| Money | USDC on-chain | US dollars |
| Regulation | Offshore terms | CFTC-regulated exchange (via QCX) |
| Catalog | Huge: politics, world, crypto, culture | Shorter, US-compliant list |
| 15-minute crypto | Up/Down, settles on Chainlink | Up/Down launched Sep 2025 with BTC; ETH, SOL, XRP followed |
The US fee schedule applies a taker fee of 0.0695 × P × (1−P) per contract — the same curve shape as Kalshi's, peaking near 50¢ and shrinking toward the extremes. It is near-identical economics to Kalshi (a deliberate competitive choice), so venue choice for a US trader comes down to catalog, settlement rules and interface, not a fee bargain. Full side-by-side: Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Our signals were built on the 15-minute crypto windows, and the US arm brought those same windows to American users inside a regulated product — with its own market rules. Read each market's stated settlement source in the app before trading a signal there: as the comparison page explains, near-tie windows can settle differently across venues, and a public record is only meaningful against one referee at a time. Ours is published, free, in our statistics.
Polymarket's regulated product for US residents: after acquiring the CFTC-regulated exchange QCX, Polymarket relaunched for Americans as its own app and market list, in US dollars with identity verification — separate from the global crypto-settled site, which remains restricted in the US.
Yes — its Up/Down market line launched with 15-minute BTC windows in September 2025 and added ETH, SOL and XRP. Check the current app listing; the US catalog is shorter and changes faster than the global one.
The US fee schedule lists a taker fee of 0.0695 × P × (1−P) per contract — the same shape as Kalshi's curve, a slightly different coefficient. Fees and schedules can change; confirm in the app's fee page before trading.
Educational content only — not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money: every contract that settles against you is worth $0. Adults 18+ only.
The result data on this site are the official Kalshi settlements.
See the live signals
Practice in the DEMO
Public track record
How to read a signal