Kalshi vs Polymarket, compared by someone who watches both

Data: official Kalshi settlements

They are the two names everyone compares — each is the other's most-searched related term — but they are built differently: one is a US-regulated exchange in dollars, the other a global crypto-native market with a regulated US arm. Here is the comparison that matters, including the part almost nobody checks: how each one settles.

The comparison table

The difference that actually costs people money

Both venues list a market that looks identical — "Bitcoin up or down in the next 15 minutes" — but the settlement rule is written by each venue and they are not the same rule. Kalshi compares two 60-second averages of a CF Benchmarks index; Polymarket's global product reads Chainlink price streams. A window that ends in a near-tie can pay YES on one venue and NO on the other. Any strategy, signal or "arbitrage" that ignores which referee settles your contract is gambling on the fine print. Our own signals are built and judged on one venue's official result at a time — read how settlement works before following anyone's calls across venues.

Which one fits whom

• You want regulated, in dollars, from the US: Kalshi is the straightforward door — and the same contracts also sit inside Robinhood.
• You want the deepest global books on world events: Polymarket's global market is the bigger ocean, with crypto settlement and no US access.
• You're in the US and want Polymarket: that's Polymarket US — a separate, regulated product with a shorter market list.

Neither platform sponsors or endorses this site; we publish analysis and a public record. Fees in depth: Kalshi fees explained and fees on both venues. Prices as odds: what Kalshi odds really mean.

Short answers

Which is bigger, Kalshi or Polymarket?

Polymarket has historically posted larger global volume, driven by politics. Kalshi is the largest US-regulated exchange and leads in US-specific categories like economics data and 15-minute crypto windows listed on a regulated venue.

Can US residents use both?

Kalshi is open to US residents (18+, with ID verification). Polymarket's global site is restricted in the US; Americans use Polymarket US, its regulated US product, which has its own app, rules and market list.

Do Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same 15-minute market the same way?

No — and this is the trap. Kalshi settles its 15-minute crypto on CF Benchmarks 60-second averages (a tie pays UP). Polymarket's global 15-minute Up/Down settles on Chainlink data. Same market name, different referee: a window can settle differently on each venue.

Educational content only — not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose you money: every contract that settles against you is worth $0. Adults 18+ only.